Jayson Werth: The Fantasy Impact

   As you're probably already heard by now, Jayson Werth is now a Washington National. Much has been made of the Nationals breaking the bank for Werth, and there are lots of questions about whether the deal was a smart move or not. That is a topic that been covered in plenty of other places, and there is no need to restate the same arguments here. Instead, let's take a look at the fantasy impact of this deal.

  Werth is one of the more valuable outfielders in fantasy because while he is not dominant in any single category, he helps in all of them. His huge contract is paying him like a franchise player, but the numbers don't quite back that up. Keep in mind that while Werth's average was .296 last season, he was a .282 hitter in his four years in Philadelphia, and is only a .272 hitter in his entire career. 

   Another concern to keep in mind is that Werth's power numbers dropped last season, and only 9 of his 27 homers came away from his hitter-friendly former home in Philadelphia. The Nationals home stadium is much less inviting for hitters, and you have to imagine the power numbers will drop. Werth also went from stealing 20 bases in 2008 and 2009 to only 13 in 2010, and as he gets older, it's hard to picture him running more.

  Don't get me wrong, Jayson Werth is still a good player, and he will help whatever fantasy teams draft hit him in 2011. However, to get him, you will  probably have to draft him early, and he really isn't a guy you can build a fantasy team around. If he's there in the 6th round and guys like Andrew McCutchen and Chris Young are already off the board, make your move. But don't let the giant contract trick you into thinking he's an elite talent, because you will probably be disappointed.

Waiver Wire Target: Danny Amendola

As you probably have heard by now, the Rams number 1 wide receiver, Mark Clayton, is out for the season with a knee injury. Now obviously, injuries are never a good thing for the man being injured. However, from a fantasy standpoint, almost every injury thrusts a backup into a suddenly much more prominent role. The key part is identifying who the player is that benefits.

"It's like what Lenin said... you look for the person who will benefit, and, uh, uh... "

With Mark Clayton out of the Rams offense, there is some worry that Sam Bradford may be out of his element (Two Big Lebowski jokes! Ha!) if he doesn't find a new go-to guy. However, if last week's game against the Lions was any indication, we know who that guy might be.

Tell me if this sounds familar: Small, average speed, white guy who plays wide receiver for Texas Tech comes into the league with very little hype around him, but works his butt off and gets put in a favorable situation where he can rack up a ton of catches in a pass-friendly offense. Wes Welker, right? Well, yes, but it also describes Danny Amendola.

Questionable ball carrying technique, but unquestionably bad-ass

Amendola racked up 19 targets (a ton, for those who aren't familiar with that stat), and he caught 12 of them. Danny isn't really explosive, but if he gets the ball thrown his way that often, he won't need to be. Amendola is the best healthy receiver the Rams have, and look for him to get a lot of looks. Mind you, the Rams offense probably will be less explosive with Clayton gone, but there is still some value. Amendola should be owned in all leagues, especially PPR.

Steve Smith: Sleeper Player for Week 4

       If I was a gambling man, I would lay a large bet on Steve Smith of the New York Giants going over 100 yards in this game. I think he is going to get a ton of catches this week.
  

He's going to go all Rod Tidwell on them. Hopefully then, someone will finally show him the money. (If you've never seen Jerry Maguire, I'm sorry for wasting your time with this joke.)

   You see, the Bears play a classic Cover 2 scheme. The Cover 2 is made to take away the deep threat, meaning that Hakeem Nicks probably won't be able to hurt people over the top. However, the Cover Two defense allows short passes and can be broken with a good slot receiver. Steve Smith is the perfect Cover Two busting possession receiver.

    Last week against the Packers, it looked like Brian Urlacher has maybe lost a step or two. Rodgers threw the ball through the zone Urlacher was supposed to be covering on his touchdown pass to Jennings, and I'm not sure if he's the same guy he was pre-surgery. The middle linebacker is absolutely key in stopping the pass for Cover 2, and if Urlacher doesn't step it up in a big way, Smith is going to burn him all game long.

Dude's got more hops than a brewery.

  Bottom Line, if you have #12, he needs to be in your lineup.

The Return of LT?

Think back to the end of the 2009 NFL season. Ladainian Tomlinson was widely considered to be washed up, a shell of his former self. His numbers were all career lows, and San Diego was so desperate to get his replacement that they traded up in the first round to take Fresno State's star running back, Ryan Mathews.

He was so upset about it, he punched this poor guy in the face.

Fast forward to the present day. Tomlinson has been better than anyone could have expected for the New York Jets, and is taking control of a starting job that everyone (myself included) figured would belong to Shonn Greene. LT is leading the Jets in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, and he's even second on the team in receptions.

If you had the foresight to draft LT in your fantasy league, you're probably thrilled to have him. If not, now is the time to make your move and try to trade for him. The Jets made a lot of noise about how they expect to win a title this season, and they simply do not have the patience to wait for Greene to figure it out. I think LT is about to start getting the lion's share of the touches in the Jets backfield, and with their offensive line, that's a very valuable role. I would not be surprised to see him finish in the top 15 of running backs by the end of this season.

WAIVER WIRE PICKUP:

If you can't get LT and you need to add depth at the running back position, one of the more intriguing sleepers that's probably available in your league is LeGarrette Blount of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

Yeah, this guy

Blount only got 6 carries last Sunday against the Steelers, but he managed to turn them into 27 yards and a score which is no small task against Pittsburgh's outstanding defense. He is Cadillac Williams' backup right now, but Williams has a long list of injuries in his past, and with Blount looking promising, you have to think coach Raheem Morris will want to see what he can do. I expect Blount to be more valuable this season than popular waiver wire pickups Ryan Torain or BenJarvus Green-Ellis.

If you have any fantasy football question, feel free to leave them in the comments section and I will get back to you as soon as possible.